Category Archives: Soccer

Be a booker: PoissoNed! Ultimate

Update 30.5.2016: More total goals probabilities added!

Update 3.11.2016: Calculation/simulation optimizations.

Offer hundreds of side bets (or find value side bets) by just entering 1×2 and over/under total goals odds! This online tool was originally developed exclusively for a Balkan booker. Now available in public. http://annabet.com/en/poissoned/ultimate.php

This is not just for “copying” the estimations from bookers’ (or betting exchanges’) odds but you can also calculate probabilities similarly than with PoissoNed! Pro version using goal average estimations, power ratings, elo ratings and more. Pricing is based as a subscription for accessing this online tool. Personal manual usage only. Ask for corporate pricing and CSV data export possibilities.

Lots of highly valuable extra features compared to Pro version

  • Odds copy / reverse engineer almost any 1×2 + o/u combination using either EU, UK or US odds format.
  • 1. half & 2. half probabilities based on user’s league selection and statistical analysis on our 500 000+ soccer games! Or auto discover best match if no league selected.
  • A lots of new special side bets and combo bets.
  • Live Score option removes impossible results from percentage data (for example if you enter “1-0” there is no possibility for home team to score 0 goals and thus this is taken account when calculating possible outcomes).
  • Extra option to manually enter “HT vs FT Goal Distr.%” = Half time vs full time goal distribution % = usually about 44% of goals are scored in the 1. half (this can vary a lot based on league, so it is recommended to choose the league from the league menu to get best values) but you can here enter any percentage for that ratio if you wish.
  • Extra option to customize 1st Half Tie% and 2nd Half Tie%: if you wish to fine tune 1×2 probability field of halves you can enter here your own values. For example if PoissoNed! says 47.7% 1. half tie % you can then enter here 49.5% to get a bit higher probability for that.
  • Max Odds setting to limit maximum odds in very low probability (high odds) side bets. For example instead of offering odds like 9674.24 for 5-5 score, you might want to set the maximum odds as 500.00 or 1000.00 instead.
  • Free trial calculations available -> you’ll need an AnnaBet.com user account first.
  • Save over 50% with 1 year subscription compared to 12 x 1 month subscription.
  • Ask for corporate pricing (VAT 0% invoice) and CSV export feature!

Q & A

Q: Why % from correct score 0:0 doesn’t be the same as we calculate it from “Home team score 0 goal” * “Away team score 0 goal”. It’s should be the same as 0:0 score at the game, right?

A: You can only multiply probabilities if they happen independently. In our model we try to fit every possible correct score % to user input values (1X2% and over/under%). In that model there can be slightly different probabilities using multiplying as those scoring probabilities per team are not totally independent in real world. See this article.

Demo view:

PoissoNed! Ultimate

Odds 1 Home x Tie 2 Away Total Goals Under Over
Extra Live Score HT vs FT Goal Distr.% 1st Half Tie% 2nd Half Tie%

Overround : 100%   EU odds (also available in UK and US)

1×2 % 45.9% – 28.8% – 25.4% (2.18 – 3.48 – 3.94)
Moneyline 64.4% – 35.6% (1.55 – 2.81)
Double Chance 1x 74.6% (1.34)
Double Chance x2 54.1% (1.85)
Double Chance 12 71.2% (1.40)
Goal Average (Home – Away) 1.600 – 1.136 = 2.736

 

1. Half 1×2 % 34.7% – 43.1% – 22.2% (2.88 – 2.32 – 4.50)
1. Half Moneyline 61.0% – 39.0% (1.64 – 2.56)
1. Half Double Chance 1x 77.8% (1.29)
1. Half Double Chance x2 65.3% (1.53)
1. Half Double Chance 12 56.9% (1.76)

 

2. Half 1×2 % 39.4% – 36.3% – 24.4% (2.54 – 2.76 – 4.11)
2. Half Moneyline 61.8% – 38.2% (1.62 – 2.62)
2. Half Double Chance 1x 75.6% (1.32)
2. Half Double Chance x2 60.6% (1.65)
2. Half Double Chance 12 63.7% (1.57)

Half with most goals

 

1. Half 28.8% (3.47)
2. Half 46.1% (2.17)
Tie 25.1% (3.99)

 

Home Goal Probabilities

 

0 20.4%
(4.91)
1 33.1%
(3.03)
2 25.7%
(3.89)
3 13.4%
(7.49)
4 5.3%
(18.94)
5 1.7%
(59.39)

 

1. Half

 

0 50.6%
(1.98)
1 34.4%
(2.90)
2 11.8%
(8.51)
3 2.7%
(37.11)

 

2. Half

 

0 40.5%
(2.47)
1 36.6%
(2.73)
2 16.5%
(6.05)
3 5.0%
(20.00)
4 1.1%
(87.93)

Away Goal Probabilities

 

0 31.9%
(3.13)
1 37.1%
(2.70)
2 20.7%
(4.84)
3 7.6%
(13.15)
4 2.1%
(47.26)

 

1. Half

 

0 61.5%
(1.63)
1 29.9%
(3.34)
2 7.2%
(13.79)
3 1.2%
(84.87)

 

2. Half

 

0 52.5%
(1.91)
1 33.9%
(2.95)
2 10.9%
(9.20)
3 2.3%
(42.89)

Any other goal <1%

Correct Score

 

Home % Odds Tie % Odds Away % Odds
1-0 9.9% 10.11 0-0 7.5% 13.32 0-1 6.9% 14.48
2-0 7.9% 12.64 1-1 13.6% 7.33 0-2 3.9% 25.50
2-1 9.0% 11.13 2-2 6.2% 16.13 0-3 1.5% 67.35
3-0 4.2% 23.69 3-3 1.3% 79.87 0-4 0.4% 237.19
3-1 4.8% 20.86 4-4 0.1% 703.24 0-5 0.1% 1044.14
3-2 2.7% 36.73 5-5 0.0% 9674.26 0-6 0.0% 5515.72
4-0 1.7% 59.24 1-2 6.3% 15.94
4-1 1.9% 52.15 1-3 2.4% 42.09
4-2 1.1% 91.84 1-4 0.7% 148.24
4-3 0.4% 242.56 1-5 0.2% 652.58
5-0 0.5% 185.12 1-6 0.0% 3447.32
5-1 0.6% 162.98 2-3 1.9% 52.62
5-2 0.3% 286.99 2-4 0.5% 185.30
5-3 0.1% 758.01 2-5 0.1% 815.73
5-4 0.0% 2669.50 2-6 0.0% 4309.15
6-0 0.1% 694.18 3-4 0.3% 347.44
6-1 0.2% 611.18 3-5 0.1% 1529.49
6-2 0.1% 1076.20 3-6 0.0% 8079.66
6-3 0.0% 2842.54 4-5 0.0% 3823.74
6-4 0.0% 10010.61
7-0 0.0% 3037.05
7-1 0.0% 2673.90
7-2 0.0% 4708.36
7-3 0.0% 12436.11
8-0 0.0% 15185.23
8-1 0.0% 13369.50

Other results <0.005%
Results (0,1,2,3) – (0,1,2,3) probability: 90.0% (1.11)
any other results than (0,1,2,3) – (0,1,2,3): 10.0% (10.00)

Results (0,1,2) – (0,1,2) probability: 71.3% (1.40)
any other results than (0,1,2) – (0,1,2): 28.7% (3.48)

1. Half Correct Score

 

Home % Odds Tie % Odds Away % Odds
1-0 20.8% 4.80 0-0 31.5% 3.17 0-1 14.8% 6.76
2-0 7.2% 13.92 1-1 10.6% 9.41 0-2 3.6% 27.62
2-1 3.5% 28.44 2-2 0.9% 111.50 0-3 0.6% 169.32
3-0 1.7% 60.57 3-3 0.0% 2973.76 0-4 0.1% 1383.79
3-1 0.8% 123.76 0-5 0.0% 14136.46
3-2 0.2% 505.71 1-2 2.5% 40.07
4-0 0.3% 351.41 1-3 0.4% 245.58
4-1 0.1% 717.98 1-4 0.0% 2007.04
4-2 0.0% 2933.89 2-3 0.1% 712.38
4-3 0.0% 17983.14 2-4 0.0% 5822.00
5-0 0.0% 2548.42
5-1 0.0% 5206.79

Other results <0.005%
Results (0,1,2,3) – (0,1,2,3) probability: 99.3% (1.01)
any other results than (0,1,2,3) – (0,1,2,3): 0.7% (143.91)

Results (0,1,2) – (0,1,2) probability: 95.5% (1.05)
any other results than (0,1,2) – (0,1,2): 4.5% (22.11)

Results (0,1) – (0,1) probability: 77.8% (1.29)
any other results than (0,1) – (0,1): 22.2% (4.50)

2. Half Correct Score

 

Home % Odds Tie % Odds Away % Odds
1-0 18.9% 5.28 0-0 21.6% 4.63 0-1 13.4% 7.44
2-0 8.6% 11.60 1-1 12.7% 7.87 0-2 4.3% 23.01
2-1 5.6% 17.94 2-2 1.9% 53.51 0-3 0.9% 106.80
3-0 2.6% 38.21 3-3 0.1% 818.32 0-4 0.2% 660.91
3-1 1.7% 59.11 0-5 0.0% 5112.51
3-2 0.5% 182.89 1-2 4.0% 25.27
4-0 0.6% 167.84 1-3 0.9% 117.29
4-1 0.4% 259.66 1-4 0.1% 725.86
4-2 0.1% 803.45 1-5 0.0% 5614.86
4-3 0.0% 3729.04 2-3 0.4% 257.64
5-0 0.1% 921.65 2-4 0.1% 1594.36
5-1 0.1% 1425.88 2-5 0.0% 12333.15
5-2 0.0% 4411.96 3-4 0.0% 5253.04
6-0 0.0% 6073.24
6-1 0.0% 9395.91

Other results <0.005%
Results (0,1,2,3) – (0,1,2,3) probability: 98.2% (1.02)
any other results than (0,1,2,3) – (0,1,2,3): 1.8% (55.40)

Results (0,1,2) – (0,1,2) probability: 91.0% (1.10)
any other results than (0,1,2) – (0,1,2): 9.0% (11.16)

Results (0,1) – (0,1) probability: 66.7% (1.50)
any other results than (0,1) – (0,1): 33.3% (3.00)

Teams to Score

 

Home to score 79.6% (1.26)
Away to score 68.1% (1.47)
Neither Team To Score 7.5% (13.32)
One Team To Score Only 37.3% (2.68)
One Team To Score Only Or Neither Team To Score 44.8% (2.23)
Both Teams To Score 55.2% (1.81)
Both Teams To Score @ 1. Half 19.4% (5.15)
Both Teams To Score @ 2. Half 28.6% (3.50)
Both Teams To Score & 3+ Total Goals 41.6% (2.41)
Scoring Draw 21.3% (4.71)
Home to score in both halves 29.4% (3.40)
Away to score in both halves 18.3% (5.47)

Special

 

Home Win To Nil 24.4% (4.09)
Away Win To Nil 12.9% (7.78)
Home Win by One Goal 22.1% (4.53)
Away Win by One Goal 15.4% (6.50)
Total Goals – Even 52.8% (1.89)
Total Goals – Odd 47.2% (2.12)
Goal in both halves : Yes 53.7% (1.86) No 46.3% (2.16)
Home to win both halves : Yes 13.7% (7.31) No 86.3% (1.16)
Away to win both halves : Yes 5.4% (18.49) No 94.6% (1.06)

 

Special Combos

 

1 (Home) & Both Teams To Score 21.4% (4.66)
2 (Away) & Both Teams To Score 12.5% (8.00)
1 (Home) & 3+ Total Goals 28.1% (3.56)
1 (Home) & 3 Total Goals 13.2% (7.57)
1 (Home) & 4+ Total Goals 14.9% (6.73)
1 (Home) & 4 Total Goals 6.5% (15.43)
1 (Home) & 5+ Total Goals 8.4% (11.92)
1 (Home) & 5 Total Goals 5.2% (19.31)
1 (Home) & Home 2+ goals 36.0% (2.78)
2 (Away) & 3+ Total Goals 14.5% (6.88)
2 (Away) & 3 Total Goals 7.8% (12.89)
2 (Away) & 4+ Total Goals 6.8% (14.77)
2 (Away) & 4 Total Goals 2.8% (35.75)
2 (Away) & 5+ Total Goals 4.0% (25.18)
2 (Away) & 5 Total Goals 2.7% (37.44)
2 (Away) & Away 2+ goals 18.4% (5.42)

Handicaps

 

Home -0.5 : Away +0.5 45.9% – 54.1% (2.18 – 1.85)
Home -1.5 : Away +1.5 23.8% – 76.2% (4.20 – 1.31)
Home -2.5 : Away +2.5 9.9% – 90.1% (10.11 – 1.11)
Home -3.5 : Away +3.5 3.4% – 96.6% (29.70 – 1.03)
Home -4.5 : Away +4.5 1.0% – 99.0% (103.80 – 1.01)
Home +0.5 : Away -0.5 74.6% – 25.4% (1.34 – 3.94)
Home +1.5 : Away -1.5 90.0% – 10.0% (1.11 – 10.04)
Home +2.5 : Away -2.5 96.9% – 3.1% (1.03 – 32.76)

Asian Handicap

 

Home -4.5 : Away +4.5 1.0% – 99.0% (103.80 – 1.01)
Home -4.0 & -4.5 : Away +4.0 & +4.5 1.0% – 99.0% (102.55 – 1.01)
Home -4.0 : Away +4.0 1.0% – 99.0% (101.30 – 1.01)
Home -3.5 & -4.0 : Away +3.5 & +4.0 2.2% – 97.8% (45.63 – 1.02)
Home -3.5 : Away +3.5 3.4% – 96.6% (29.70 – 1.03)
Home -3.0 & -3.5 : Away +3.0 & +3.5 3.5% – 96.5% (28.74 – 1.04)
Home -3.0 : Away +3.0 3.6% – 96.4% (27.77 – 1.04)
Home -2.5 & -3.0 : Away +2.5 & +3.0 6.9% – 93.1% (14.59 – 1.07)
Home -2.5 : Away +2.5 9.9% – 90.1% (10.11 – 1.11)
Home -2.0 & -2.5 : Away +2.0 & +2.5 10.6% – 89.4% (9.41 – 1.12)
Home -2.0 : Away +2.0 11.5% – 88.5% (8.70 – 1.13)
Home -1.5 & -2.0 : Away +1.5 & +2.0 18.1% – 81.9% (5.52 – 1.22)
Home -1.5 : Away +1.5 23.8% – 76.2% (4.20 – 1.31)
Home -1.0 & -1.5 : Away +1.0 & +1.5 26.8% – 73.2% (3.73 – 1.37)
Home -1.0 : Away +1.0 30.6% – 69.4% (3.27 – 1.44)
Home -0.5 & -1.0 : Away +0.5 & +1.0 39.2% – 60.8% (2.55 – 1.64)
Home -0.5 : Away +0.5 45.9% – 54.1% (2.18 – 1.85)
Home 0 & -0.5 : Away 0 & +0.5 53.6% – 46.4% (1.87 – 2.15)
Home 0 : Away 0 64.4% – 35.6% (1.55 – 2.81)
Home 0 & +0.5 : Away 0 & -0.5 70.4% – 29.6% (1.42 – 3.38)
Home +0.5 : Away -0.5 74.6% – 25.4% (1.34 – 3.94)
Home +0.5 & +1.0 : Away -0.5 & -1.0 80.9% – 19.1% (1.24 – 5.23)
Home +1.0 : Away -1.0 88.2% – 11.8% (1.13 – 8.49)
Home +1.0 & +1.5 : Away -1.0 & -1.5 89.2% – 10.8% (1.12 – 9.27)
Home +1.5 : Away -1.5 90.0% – 10.0% (1.11 – 10.04)
Home +1.5 & +2.0 : Away -1.5 & -2.0 93.3% – 6.7% (1.07 – 14.84)
Home +2.0 : Away -2.0 96.7% – 3.3% (1.03 – 30.51)
Home +2.0 & +2.5 : Away -2.0 & -2.5 96.8% – 3.2% (1.03 – 31.64)
Home +2.5 : Away -2.5 96.9% – 3.1% (1.03 – 32.77)
Home +2.5 & +3.0 : Away -2.5 & -3.0 98.1% – 1.9% (1.02 – 51.92)

1×2 Handicaps

Home -1 : Away +1 23.8% – 22.1% % – 54.1% (4.20 – 4.53 – 1.85)
Home -2 : Away +2 9.9% – 13.9% % – 76.2% (10.11 – 7.17 – 1.31)
Home -3 : Away +3 3.4% – 6.5% % – 90.1% (29.70 – 15.33 – 1.11)
Home -4 : Away +4 1.0% – 2.4% % – 96.6% (103.80 – 41.61 – 1.03)
Home +1 : Away -1 74.6% – 15.4% – 10.0% (1.34 – 6.50 – 10.04)
Home +2 : Away -2 90.0% – 6.9% % – 3.1% (1.11 – 14.48 – 32.77)
Home +3 : Away -3 96.9% – 2.3% % – 0.8% (1.03 – 43.57 – 132.20)

Total Goals

0 goals 7.5% (13.32)
0-1 goals 24.3% (4.11)
0-2 goals 49.8% (2.01)
1 goals 16.8% (5.95)
1-2 goals 42.3% (2.37)
1-3 goals 63.2% (1.58)
2 goals 25.5% (3.92)
2-3 goals 46.4% (2.15)
2-4 goals 61.9% (1.61)
3 goals 21.0% (4.77)
3-4 goals 36.4% (2.74)
3-5 goals 44.3% (2.26)
4 goals 15.5% (6.46)
4-5 goals 23.3% (4.29)
4-6 goals 27.1% (3.68)
5 goals 7.9% (12.74)
5-6 goals 11.7% (8.58)
5-7 goals 13.1% (7.66)
6 goals 3.8% (26.25)
6-7 goals 5.2% (19.20)
6-8 goals 5.7% (17.50)
7 goals 1.4% (71.45)
7-8 goals 1.9% (52.51)
7-9 goals 2.0% (48.78)

Total Goals

Over Under
0.5 goals 92.5% (1.08) 7.5% (13.32)
1.5 goals 75.7% (1.32) 24.3% (4.11)
2.5 goals 50.2% (1.99) 49.8% (2.01)
3.5 goals 29.2% (3.42) 70.8% (1.41)
4.5 goals 13.8% (7.27) 86.2% (1.16)
5.5 goals 5.9% (16.91) 94.1% (1.06)
6.5 goals 2.1% (47.54) 97.9% (1.02)
1 goals 91.0% (1.10) 9.0% (11.08)
2 goals 67.4% (1.48) 32.6% (3.07)
3 goals 37.0% (2.70) 63.0% (1.59)
4 goals 16.3% (6.14) 83.7% (1.19)
5 goals 6.4% (15.58) 93.6% (1.07)
6 goals 2.2% (45.73) 97.8% (1.02)
0.5 & 1 goals 91.8% (1.09) 8.2% (12.20)
1 & 1.5 goals 82.6% (1.21) 17.4% (5.76)
1.5 & 2 goals 72.1% (1.39) 27.9% (3.59)
2 & 2.5 goals 57.5% (1.74) 42.5% (2.36)
2.5 & 3 goals 44.4% (2.25) 55.6% (1.80)
3 & 3.5 goals 32.7% (3.06) 67.3% (1.49)
3.5 & 4 goals 23.3% (4.29) 76.7% (1.30)
4 & 4.5 goals 14.9% (6.70) 85.1% (1.18)
4.5 & 5 goals 10.2% (9.77) 89.8% (1.11)
5 & 5.5 goals 6.2% (16.25) 93.8% (1.07)
5.5 & 6 goals 4.1% (24.47) 95.9% (1.04)
6 & 6.5 goals 2.1% (46.63) 97.9% (1.02)

1. Half Total Goals

Over Under
0.5 goals 68.2% (1.47) 31.8% (3.15)
1.5 goals 32.7% (3.06) 67.3% (1.49)
2.5 goals 11.3% (8.83) 88.7% (1.13)
3.5 goals 3.1% (31.78) 96.9% (1.03)
1 goals 50.7% (1.97) 49.3% (2.03)
2 goals 14.4% (6.94) 85.6% (1.17)
3 goals 3.4% (29.18) 96.6% (1.04)

2. Half Total Goals

Over Under
0.5 goals 78.4% (1.28) 21.6% (4.64)
1.5 goals 46.1% (2.17) 53.9% (1.86)
2.5 goals 20.4% (4.90) 79.6% (1.26)
3.5 goals 7.3% (13.67) 92.7% (1.08)
4.5 goals 2.1% (46.98) 97.9% (1.02)
1 goals 68.1% (1.47) 31.9% (3.14)
2 goals 27.5% (3.64) 72.5% (1.38)
3 goals 8.4% (11.88) 91.6% (1.09)
4 goals 2.2% (44.54) 97.8% (1.02)
1 (Home) Or Total Goals Over 2.5 68.0% (1.47)
2 (Away) Or Total Goals Over 2.5 61.0% (1.64)
1 (Home) & Total Goals Over 1.5 @ 1. Half 17.4% (5.74)
2 (Away) & Total Goals Over 1.5 @ 1. Half 8.9% (11.25)

Team Totals

Home Over Under
0.5 goals 79.6% (1.26) 20.4% (4.91)
1.5 goals 46.6% (2.15) 53.4% (1.87)
2.5 goals 20.9% (4.79) 79.1% (1.26)
3.5 goals 7.5% (13.26) 92.5% (1.08)
4.5 goals 2.3% (44.26) 97.7% (1.02)
1 goals 69.6% (1.44) 30.4% (3.29)
2 goals 28.1% (3.56) 71.9% (1.39)
3 goals 8.7% (11.49) 91.3% (1.10)
4 goals 2.4% (41.92) 97.6% (1.02)
Away Over Under
0.5 goals 68.1% (1.47) 31.9% (3.13)
1.5 goals 31.0% (3.23) 69.0% (1.45)
2.5 goals 10.3% (9.71) 89.7% (1.11)
3.5 goals 2.7% (37.06) 97.3% (1.03)
1 goals 49.2% (2.03) 50.8% (1.97)
2 goals 13.0% (7.70) 87.0% (1.15)
3 goals 2.9% (34.24) 97.1% (1.03)

1. Half Team Totals

Home Over Under
0.5 goals 49.2% (2.03) 50.8% (1.97)
1.5 goals 14.9% (6.73) 85.1% (1.17)
2.5 goals 3.2% (31.30) 96.8% (1.03)
Away Over Under
0.5 goals 38.4% (2.61) 61.6% (1.62)
1.5 goals 8.5% (11.74) 91.5% (1.09)
2.5 goals 1.3% (75.64) 98.7% (1.01)

2. Half Team Totals

Home Over Under
0.5 goals 59.6% (1.68) 40.4% (2.47)
1.5 goals 22.9% (4.36) 77.1% (1.30)
2.5 goals 6.4% (15.62) 93.6% (1.07)
3.5 goals 1.4% (72.06) 98.6% (1.01)
Away Over Under
0.5 goals 47.6% (2.10) 52.4% (1.91)
1.5 goals 13.7% (7.32) 86.3% (1.16)
2.5 goals 2.8% (36.06) 97.2% (1.03)
Both Teams To Score & 2+ goals @ 1. Half 26.3% (3.80)
Total Goals Over 0.5 goals @ 1. Half & Over 0.5 @ 2. Half 53.5% (1.87)
Total Goals Over 1.5 goals @ 1. Half & Over 0.5 @ 2. Half 25.7% (3.90)
Total Goals Over 0.5 goals @ 1. Half & Over 1.5 @ 2. Half 31.5% (3.18)
Total Goals Over 1.5 goals @ 1. Half & Over 1.5 @ 2. Half 15.1% (6.63)
Home Over 0.5 goals @ 1. Half & Over 0.5 @ 2. Half 29.3% (3.41)
Home Over 1.5 goals @ 1. Half & Over 0.5 @ 2. Half 8.9% (11.29)
Home Over 0.5 goals @ 1. Half & Over 1.5 @ 2. Half 11.3% (8.85)
Home Over 1.5 goals @ 1. Half & Over 1.5 @ 2. Half 3.4% (29.32)
Away Over 0.5 goals @ 1. Half & Over 0.5 @ 2. Half 18.2% (5.48)
Away Over 1.5 goals @ 1. Half & Over 0.5 @ 2. Half 4.1% (24.68)
Away Over 0.5 goals @ 1. Half & Over 1.5 @ 2. Half 5.2% (19.08)
Away Over 1.5 goals @ 1. Half & Over 1.5 @ 2. Half 1.2% (85.91)

 

Football Elo ratings calculations added to PoissoNed! Pro

Football Elo ratings calculations added to PoissoNed! Pro: http://annabet.com/en/poissoned/ Enter both teams Elo ratings (or AnnaBet Power Ratings) and your estimation of total goals to get tons of probabilities. PoissoNed! is a mathematical tool to calculate football probabilities based on your goal expectations. It can also be helpful in other low scoring sports like ice hockey.

In this example I have used AnnaBet Power Ratings values of Italy U19 and Bosnia & Herzegovina U19 and estimated total goals of 2,85. Tie probability multiplier is optional. It can be used to adjust tie probability. For example value of 1,1 would add 10% (multiply by 1,1).

Elo ratings calculations are only available in PoissoNed! Pro version. You can buy it from our web store.

Statistics Pro new features

Going to show you some great stuff you are able to get when purchasing our Statistics Pro -service.

This was added only today (12.6.2013):

This is from our head-to-head comparison (h2h) page for Ghana vs Ivory Coast

Statistics Pro only: longest streaks and current streak of having conceded a goal in game. See Ghana here record of 19 concecutive games and currently only 1 game streak of letting in a goal. Ivory Coast on the other hand has not conceded a goal in their last 2 games (conceded goal = -2). So a negative number here means the opposite. It is obvious on the over / under 2.5 goals streak. If team currently has 3 goals streak of over 2.5 total goals games, then it also has a -3 streak as under 2.5 goals games. You can actually customize this total goals limit: exactly 2 goals, 1.5, 3.0, anything. It can have negative number on both over and under side if the team currently has played exactly x goals game(s). For example if you choose limit of over / under 2 goals and both teams have played 1-1 score their previous games then it would be -1 on both over 2 total goals and under 2 total goals games because they have not played over nor under 2 goals games in their last 1 games.

Also just added couple of days ago: Special Statistics tab in every league page. This is from English Premier League (EPL):

If you click Score Stats -button you’ll get the following statistics:

You can sort the columns by clicking it and if you put your mouse cursor over the percentage (%) value you’ll see percentage as value odds (for example 50.0% = 2.00 in decimal value odds, 1/1 UK, +100 in US odds). This actually works in all the percentages seen in league pages and subpages.

If you click Half Time / Full Time -button from the Special Statistics you’ll get this:

All the amazing data filtering that you can do for each team when comparing them, you’d better just try it yourself in this demo:

http://annabet.com/en/statistics/statistics_pro_demo.php

Some examples: “show me games of team A vs team B in NHL playoffs where team A was heavy favorite with 1×2 odds under 1.50 and team B underdog with odds 3.00+ and also show me all these games results and statistics as -1.5 handicap for the team A!”

“Show me the 1st half 1×2% distribution where Arsenal was <1.40 odds heavy favorite at home and Stoke 4.50+ underdog at away and show me the current 1st half 1×2 odds comparison too!”

Basketball example: “show me how New York Knicks has played as heavy favorite with -9.5 handicap!”

Live betting example: “show me all the games where Arsenal was leading 1-0 and Stoke down 0-1 after 1st half” – you can mix any of the stats data filtering totally as you wish!

New 30.5.2013:  Elo ratings based power ratings -> probability estimations -> value odds for international soccer and ice hockey games!

Odds comparison is also available in UK and US odds. Just register and login to our site and click Customize Statistics.

We wish to thank all those paying customers enabling us to develop all these cool stuff for you! We may now have the biggest sports and betting website in the world (by the size and uniqueness of the content). This is available in 12 languages. Please contact us if you can help us in new or existing translations or any other co-operation.

Our content may change (usually improve) that has been shown here. See our Terms of Use here.

AnnaBet Power Ratings guide

Our ratings are currently calculated from games played after 1.1.2000

In football our ratings are similar to World Football Elo Ratings but we have tuned up the formula. For example when goal difference is low or game is tied and we have shots on goal statistics available for the game, we’ll then analyze the shots ratio to have some effect on the ratings. For example if a game was tied 1-1 but home team outshoot away team by 10-2 you might say the home team was the better team despite the result.

In ice hockey the ratings are similar but we have taken account the higher number of goals scored and “home” team (first mentioned team) line change advantage. For example if ice hockey game Sweden – Finland was played at Finland but Sweden had the line change advantage it is then taken account when calculating ratings.

Some examples how ratings are adjusted after each game

In the beginning each team has starting rating of 1000 points. After each game played the sum of points change is 0: if home team gets +20 points then away team gets -20 pts deducted. Amount is always based on the weight/importance of the tournament: in friendlies teams get much less points than in World Cup finals.

Two equal teams meet: winner gets some decent points and loser looses the same amount. Example +20 / -20.
Heavy favorite (much higher rating) wins by few goals: gets only few points because it was very expected result. Your points rises very slowly by beating much poorer teams than you. Example +3 / -3.
Heavy favorite ties a game: favorite loses small amount of points because it was expected that the team should win, the opponent get some points. Example -3 / +3 points.
Heavy favorite loses a game: loses lots of rating points, winner gets lots of points. Example -40 / +40.

Sample Winning Expectancies

Difference
in Ratings
Higher
Rated
Lower
Rated
0 0.500 0.500
10 0.514 0.486
20 0.529 0.471
30 0.543 0.457
40 0.557 0.443
50 0.571 0.429
60 0.585 0.415
70 0.599 0.401
80 0.613 0.387
90 0.627 0.373
100 0.640 0.360
110 0.653 0.347
120 0.666 0.334
130 0.679 0.321
140 0.691 0.309
150 0.703 0.297
160 0.715 0.285
170 0.727 0.273
180 0.738 0.262
190 0.749 0.251
200 0.760 0.240

Table by Eloratings.net

Why are Power Ratings better than winning percentage or league table?

Let’s say we have 2 teams whose performance we are analyzing: Finland and Sweden. Both teams have played 8 games and Finland has 6 wins and 2 losses, Sweden 5 wins and 3 losses. You might say Finland is the better team based on that info? What if Finland has won 4 games against poor teams, 2 against mediocre and lost 2 against better teams. Sweden on the other hand had win 3 games against better teams, 2 against mediocre and then 3 narrow losses against mediocre teams. Putting it that way, you might not believe Finland should be a favorite here after all. Would our Power Ratings tell you the exactly same thing:

Finland starting rating 1000:

1. game 4-0 win against poor team +10 pts (1010)
2. game 3-1 win against poor team +6 pts (1016)
3. game 0-2 loss against better team -10 pts (1006)
4. game 4-3 win against mediocre team +15 pts (1021)
5. game 5-3 win against mediocre team +18 pts (1039)
6. game 3-5 loss against better team -10 pts (1029)
7. game 2-0 win against poor team +6 pts (1035)
8. game 5-2 win against poor team +8 pts (1043)
Current rating 1043

Sweden starting rating 1000:

1. game 3-2 win against better team +25 pts (1025)
2. game 2-3 loss against mediocre team -12 pts (1013)
3. game 4-2 win against better team +30 pts (1043)
4. game 3-0 win against mediocre team +20 pts (1063)
5. game 3-5 loss against mediocre team -15 pts (1048)
6. game 3-4 loss against mediocre team -12 pts (1036)
7. game 4-1 win against better team +35 pts (1071)
8. game 3-1 win against mediocre team +16 pts (1087)
Current rating 1087

These are just rough examples for you to get the idea.

Finland vs Sweden Power Ratings: 1043 – 1087, ratings difference 44 and by looking at the table above you can see that this game should be about Finland 46% winning chance and Sweden 54%. Note that home advantage is usually about 100 points so 46%-54% would be only at neutral venue.

It is not always about how many games you have won but rather which teams and by how many goals that tells more about your true Power. But still remember these are only computer calculated estimations and does not take account real world situations like injuries, weather etc. Also note Power Ratings being much less accurate when teams have a big difference between number of games played and/or quality/diversity of tournaments where they have played.

For example in ice hockey USA and Canada plays only few friendly matches before major tournaments and European teams plays a lots of smaller tournaments – and also playing many games against couple of selected opponents only. Smaller tournaments and friendly matches makes of course smaller changes to Power Ratings than major tournaments but when you play a lot of smaller games it can add up.

Purchase Statistics Pro to see national soccer and ice hockey teams power ratings and value odds in our head-to-head statistics

Example screenshot in our h2h / team comparison page Poland vs France:

Click here to buy Statistics Pro from our web store

Our Power Rating pages

Soccer goal probabilities: Poisson vs actual distribution

How does Poisson distribution work in football (soccer) goal probability calculations? In this article we have research data from the following European leagues in our soccer database:

Leagues: English Premier League, English Championship, Italian Serie A, Spanish Primera División and French Ligue 1
All the results we have till 9th of March 2013. Regular season games and regular playtime only, awarded games not included (note: we might not have all the awarded games info stored into our database).
Home goal average = 1.5042
Away goal average = 1.0639
n
= 39 996 games

HOME team goal distribution POISSON vs ACTUAL

AWAY team goal distribution POISSON vs ACTUAL

Poisson results here are quite accurately showing goal probabilities per team – except for the high number of goals for away team (which has much lower goal average).

Final score calculation MATH vs ACTUAL

Mathematically we can calculate each possible final score probability by multiplying each home goal probability by each away goal probability. Here you can see the results. Math (Poisson) works quite well for most of the scores but not all:

Mathematical model differs most at 0-0, 0-1 and 1-2 results. Notice that real world tie (draw) probability is higher than what is mathematically calculated:

*Math percentages calculated using each possible goal combination – not just 0 -> 3 goals as shown in the Final score table.

Poisson Distribution is a simple predictive model that doesn’t allow for a lot of factors. The system is of greatest benefit over a long period of time – using it for a whole season’s worth of games, rather than one-off matches.

PoissoNed! calculator

There is an easy way to calculate a great variety of soccer goal probabilities (for example: correct score, asian handicaps, total goals, team totals) from goal average values using PoissoNed! online calculator which has also lots of adjustable parameters like tie probability multiplier or adjusting (“forcing”) the results to certain home win – tie – away win % distribution:

See some of the results here (open the calculator from the link above to see all the probabilities). Value odds (decimal odds format) are next to the percentages. They are also available in UK and US odds.

See also this guide: Poisson Distribution for Soccer Betting by PinnacleSports