Be a booker: PoissoNed! Ultimate

Update 30.5.2016: More total goals probabilities added!

Update 3.11.2016: Calculation/simulation optimizations.

Update 7.7.2019: Odds copy / reverse engineer also using handicap odds + over/under odds.

Offer hundreds of side bets (or find value side bets) by just entering 1×2 and over/under total goals odds! This online tool was originally developed exclusively for a Balkan booker. Now available in public. http://annabet.com/en/poissoned/ultimate.php

This is not just for “copying” the estimations from bookers’ (or betting exchanges’) odds but you can also calculate probabilities similarly than with PoissoNed! Pro version using goal average estimations, power ratings, elo ratings and more. Pricing is based as a subscription for accessing this online tool. Personal manual usage only. Ask for corporate pricing and CSV data export possibilities.

Lots of highly valuable extra features compared to Pro version

  • Odds copy / reverse engineer almost any 1×2 + over/under combination using either EU, UK or US odds format.
  • Odds copy / reverse engineer using handicap lines + over/under lines.
  • 1. half & 2. half probabilities based on user’s league selection and statistical analysis on our 500 000+ soccer games! Or auto discover best match if no league selected.
  • A lots of new special side bets and combo bets.
  • Live Score option removes impossible results from percentage data (for example if you enter “1-0” there is no possibility for home team to score 0 goals and thus this is taken account when calculating possible outcomes).
  • Extra option to manually enter “HT vs FT Goal Distr.%” = Half time vs full time goal distribution % = usually about 44% of goals are scored in the 1. half (this can vary a lot based on league, so it is recommended to choose the league from the league menu to get best values) but you can here enter any percentage for that ratio if you wish.
  • Extra option to customize 1st Half Tie% and 2nd Half Tie%: if you wish to fine tune 1×2 probability field of halves you can enter here your own values. For example if PoissoNed! says 47.7% 1. half tie % you can then enter here 49.5% to get a bit higher probability for that.
  • Max Odds setting to limit maximum odds in very low probability (high odds) side bets. For example instead of offering odds like 9674.24 for 5-5 score, you might want to set the maximum odds as 500.00 or 1000.00 instead.
  • Free trial calculations available -> you’ll need an AnnaBet.com user account first.
  • Save over 50% with 1 year subscription compared to 12 x 1 month subscription.
  • Ask for business pricing (VAT 0% invoice) and CSV export feature!

Q & A

Q: Why % from correct score 0:0 doesn’t be the same as we calculate it from “Home team score 0 goal” * “Away team score 0 goal”. It’s should be the same as 0:0 score at the game, right?

A: You can only multiply probabilities if they happen independently. In our model we try to fit every possible correct score % to user input values (1X2% and over/under%). In that model there can be slightly different probabilities using multiplying as those scoring probabilities per team are not totally independent in real world. See this article.

Demo view:

PoissoNed! Ultimate

Odds 1 Home x Tie 2 Away Total Goals Under Over
Extra Live Score HT vs FT Goal Distr.% 1st Half Tie% 2nd Half Tie%

Overround : 100%   EU odds (also available in UK and US)

1×2 % 45.9% – 28.8% – 25.4% (2.18 – 3.48 – 3.94)
Moneyline 64.4% – 35.6% (1.55 – 2.81)
Double Chance 1x 74.6% (1.34)
Double Chance x2 54.1% (1.85)
Double Chance 12 71.2% (1.40)
Goal Average (Home – Away) 1.600 – 1.136 = 2.736
1. Half 1×2 % 34.7% – 43.1% – 22.2% (2.88 – 2.32 – 4.50)
1. Half Moneyline 61.0% – 39.0% (1.64 – 2.56)
1. Half Double Chance 1x 77.8% (1.29)
1. Half Double Chance x2 65.3% (1.53)
1. Half Double Chance 12 56.9% (1.76)
2. Half 1×2 % 39.4% – 36.3% – 24.4% (2.54 – 2.76 – 4.11)
2. Half Moneyline 61.8% – 38.2% (1.62 – 2.62)
2. Half Double Chance 1x 75.6% (1.32)
2. Half Double Chance x2 60.6% (1.65)
2. Half Double Chance 12 63.7% (1.57)

Half with most goals

1. Half 28.8% (3.47)
2. Half 46.1% (2.17)
Tie 25.1% (3.99)

Home Goal Probabilities

0 20.4%
(4.91)
1 33.1%
(3.03)
2 25.7%
(3.89)
3 13.4%
(7.49)
4 5.3%
(18.94)
5 1.7%
(59.39)

1. Half

0 50.6%
(1.98)
1 34.4%
(2.90)
2 11.8%
(8.51)
3 2.7%
(37.11)

2. Half

0 40.5%
(2.47)
1 36.6%
(2.73)
2 16.5%
(6.05)
3 5.0%
(20.00)
4 1.1%
(87.93)

Away Goal Probabilities

0 31.9%
(3.13)
1 37.1%
(2.70)
2 20.7%
(4.84)
3 7.6%
(13.15)
4 2.1%
(47.26)

1. Half

0 61.5%
(1.63)
1 29.9%
(3.34)
2 7.2%
(13.79)
3 1.2%
(84.87)

2. Half

0 52.5%
(1.91)
1 33.9%
(2.95)
2 10.9%
(9.20)
3 2.3%
(42.89)

Any other goal <1%

Correct Score

Home % Odds Tie % Odds Away % Odds
1-0 9.9% 10.11 0-0 7.5% 13.32 0-1 6.9% 14.48
2-0 7.9% 12.64 1-1 13.6% 7.33 0-2 3.9% 25.50
2-1 9.0% 11.13 2-2 6.2% 16.13 0-3 1.5% 67.35
3-0 4.2% 23.69 3-3 1.3% 79.87 0-4 0.4% 237.19
3-1 4.8% 20.86 4-4 0.1% 703.24 0-5 0.1% 1044.14
3-2 2.7% 36.73 5-5 0.0% 9674.26 0-6 0.0% 5515.72
4-0 1.7% 59.24 1-2 6.3% 15.94
4-1 1.9% 52.15 1-3 2.4% 42.09
4-2 1.1% 91.84 1-4 0.7% 148.24
4-3 0.4% 242.56 1-5 0.2% 652.58
5-0 0.5% 185.12 1-6 0.0% 3447.32
5-1 0.6% 162.98 2-3 1.9% 52.62
5-2 0.3% 286.99 2-4 0.5% 185.30
5-3 0.1% 758.01 2-5 0.1% 815.73
5-4 0.0% 2669.50 2-6 0.0% 4309.15
6-0 0.1% 694.18 3-4 0.3% 347.44
6-1 0.2% 611.18 3-5 0.1% 1529.49
6-2 0.1% 1076.20 3-6 0.0% 8079.66
6-3 0.0% 2842.54 4-5 0.0% 3823.74
6-4 0.0% 10010.61
7-0 0.0% 3037.05
7-1 0.0% 2673.90
7-2 0.0% 4708.36
7-3 0.0% 12436.11
8-0 0.0% 15185.23
8-1 0.0% 13369.50

Other results <0.005%
Results (0,1,2,3) – (0,1,2,3) probability: 90.0% (1.11)
any other results than (0,1,2,3) – (0,1,2,3): 10.0% (10.00)

Results (0,1,2) – (0,1,2) probability: 71.3% (1.40)
any other results than (0,1,2) – (0,1,2): 28.7% (3.48)

1. Half Correct Score

Home % Odds Tie % Odds Away % Odds
1-0 20.8% 4.80 0-0 31.5% 3.17 0-1 14.8% 6.76
2-0 7.2% 13.92 1-1 10.6% 9.41 0-2 3.6% 27.62
2-1 3.5% 28.44 2-2 0.9% 111.50 0-3 0.6% 169.32
3-0 1.7% 60.57 3-3 0.0% 2973.76 0-4 0.1% 1383.79
3-1 0.8% 123.76 0-5 0.0% 14136.46
3-2 0.2% 505.71 1-2 2.5% 40.07
4-0 0.3% 351.41 1-3 0.4% 245.58
4-1 0.1% 717.98 1-4 0.0% 2007.04
4-2 0.0% 2933.89 2-3 0.1% 712.38
4-3 0.0% 17983.14 2-4 0.0% 5822.00
5-0 0.0% 2548.42
5-1 0.0% 5206.79

Other results <0.005%
Results (0,1,2,3) – (0,1,2,3) probability: 99.3% (1.01)
any other results than (0,1,2,3) – (0,1,2,3): 0.7% (143.91)

Results (0,1,2) – (0,1,2) probability: 95.5% (1.05)
any other results than (0,1,2) – (0,1,2): 4.5% (22.11)

Results (0,1) – (0,1) probability: 77.8% (1.29)
any other results than (0,1) – (0,1): 22.2% (4.50)

2. Half Correct Score

Home % Odds Tie % Odds Away % Odds
1-0 18.9% 5.28 0-0 21.6% 4.63 0-1 13.4% 7.44
2-0 8.6% 11.60 1-1 12.7% 7.87 0-2 4.3% 23.01
2-1 5.6% 17.94 2-2 1.9% 53.51 0-3 0.9% 106.80
3-0 2.6% 38.21 3-3 0.1% 818.32 0-4 0.2% 660.91
3-1 1.7% 59.11 0-5 0.0% 5112.51
3-2 0.5% 182.89 1-2 4.0% 25.27
4-0 0.6% 167.84 1-3 0.9% 117.29
4-1 0.4% 259.66 1-4 0.1% 725.86
4-2 0.1% 803.45 1-5 0.0% 5614.86
4-3 0.0% 3729.04 2-3 0.4% 257.64
5-0 0.1% 921.65 2-4 0.1% 1594.36
5-1 0.1% 1425.88 2-5 0.0% 12333.15
5-2 0.0% 4411.96 3-4 0.0% 5253.04
6-0 0.0% 6073.24
6-1 0.0% 9395.91

Other results <0.005%
Results (0,1,2,3) – (0,1,2,3) probability: 98.2% (1.02)
any other results than (0,1,2,3) – (0,1,2,3): 1.8% (55.40)

Results (0,1,2) – (0,1,2) probability: 91.0% (1.10)
any other results than (0,1,2) – (0,1,2): 9.0% (11.16)

Results (0,1) – (0,1) probability: 66.7% (1.50)
any other results than (0,1) – (0,1): 33.3% (3.00)

Teams to Score

Home to score 79.6% (1.26)
Away to score 68.1% (1.47)
Neither Team To Score 7.5% (13.32)
One Team To Score Only 37.3% (2.68)
One Team To Score Only Or Neither Team To Score 44.8% (2.23)
Both Teams To Score 55.2% (1.81)
Both Teams To Score @ 1. Half 19.4% (5.15)
Both Teams To Score @ 2. Half 28.6% (3.50)
Both Teams To Score & 3+ Total Goals 41.6% (2.41)
Scoring Draw 21.3% (4.71)
Home to score in both halves 29.4% (3.40)
Away to score in both halves 18.3% (5.47)

Special

Home Win To Nil 24.4% (4.09)
Away Win To Nil 12.9% (7.78)
Home Win by One Goal 22.1% (4.53)
Away Win by One Goal 15.4% (6.50)
Total Goals – Even 52.8% (1.89)
Total Goals – Odd 47.2% (2.12)
Goal in both halves : Yes 53.7% (1.86) No 46.3% (2.16)
Home to win both halves : Yes 13.7% (7.31) No 86.3% (1.16)
Away to win both halves : Yes 5.4% (18.49) No 94.6% (1.06)

Special Combos

1 (Home) & Both Teams To Score 21.4% (4.66)
2 (Away) & Both Teams To Score 12.5% (8.00)
1 (Home) & 3+ Total Goals 28.1% (3.56)
1 (Home) & 3 Total Goals 13.2% (7.57)
1 (Home) & 4+ Total Goals 14.9% (6.73)
1 (Home) & 4 Total Goals 6.5% (15.43)
1 (Home) & 5+ Total Goals 8.4% (11.92)
1 (Home) & 5 Total Goals 5.2% (19.31)
1 (Home) & Home 2+ goals 36.0% (2.78)
2 (Away) & 3+ Total Goals 14.5% (6.88)
2 (Away) & 3 Total Goals 7.8% (12.89)
2 (Away) & 4+ Total Goals 6.8% (14.77)
2 (Away) & 4 Total Goals 2.8% (35.75)
2 (Away) & 5+ Total Goals 4.0% (25.18)
2 (Away) & 5 Total Goals 2.7% (37.44)
2 (Away) & Away 2+ goals 18.4% (5.42)

Handicaps

Home -0.5 : Away +0.5 45.9% – 54.1% (2.18 – 1.85)
Home -1.5 : Away +1.5 23.8% – 76.2% (4.20 – 1.31)
Home -2.5 : Away +2.5 9.9% – 90.1% (10.11 – 1.11)
Home -3.5 : Away +3.5 3.4% – 96.6% (29.70 – 1.03)
Home -4.5 : Away +4.5 1.0% – 99.0% (103.80 – 1.01)
Home +0.5 : Away -0.5 74.6% – 25.4% (1.34 – 3.94)
Home +1.5 : Away -1.5 90.0% – 10.0% (1.11 – 10.04)
Home +2.5 : Away -2.5 96.9% – 3.1% (1.03 – 32.76)

Asian Handicap

Home -4.5 : Away +4.5 1.0% – 99.0% (103.80 – 1.01)
Home -4.0 & -4.5 : Away +4.0 & +4.5 1.0% – 99.0% (102.55 – 1.01)
Home -4.0 : Away +4.0 1.0% – 99.0% (101.30 – 1.01)
Home -3.5 & -4.0 : Away +3.5 & +4.0 2.2% – 97.8% (45.63 – 1.02)
Home -3.5 : Away +3.5 3.4% – 96.6% (29.70 – 1.03)
Home -3.0 & -3.5 : Away +3.0 & +3.5 3.5% – 96.5% (28.74 – 1.04)
Home -3.0 : Away +3.0 3.6% – 96.4% (27.77 – 1.04)
Home -2.5 & -3.0 : Away +2.5 & +3.0 6.9% – 93.1% (14.59 – 1.07)
Home -2.5 : Away +2.5 9.9% – 90.1% (10.11 – 1.11)
Home -2.0 & -2.5 : Away +2.0 & +2.5 10.6% – 89.4% (9.41 – 1.12)
Home -2.0 : Away +2.0 11.5% – 88.5% (8.70 – 1.13)
Home -1.5 & -2.0 : Away +1.5 & +2.0 18.1% – 81.9% (5.52 – 1.22)
Home -1.5 : Away +1.5 23.8% – 76.2% (4.20 – 1.31)
Home -1.0 & -1.5 : Away +1.0 & +1.5 26.8% – 73.2% (3.73 – 1.37)
Home -1.0 : Away +1.0 30.6% – 69.4% (3.27 – 1.44)
Home -0.5 & -1.0 : Away +0.5 & +1.0 39.2% – 60.8% (2.55 – 1.64)
Home -0.5 : Away +0.5 45.9% – 54.1% (2.18 – 1.85)
Home 0 & -0.5 : Away 0 & +0.5 53.6% – 46.4% (1.87 – 2.15)
Home 0 : Away 0 64.4% – 35.6% (1.55 – 2.81)
Home 0 & +0.5 : Away 0 & -0.5 70.4% – 29.6% (1.42 – 3.38)
Home +0.5 : Away -0.5 74.6% – 25.4% (1.34 – 3.94)
Home +0.5 & +1.0 : Away -0.5 & -1.0 80.9% – 19.1% (1.24 – 5.23)
Home +1.0 : Away -1.0 88.2% – 11.8% (1.13 – 8.49)
Home +1.0 & +1.5 : Away -1.0 & -1.5 89.2% – 10.8% (1.12 – 9.27)
Home +1.5 : Away -1.5 90.0% – 10.0% (1.11 – 10.04)
Home +1.5 & +2.0 : Away -1.5 & -2.0 93.3% – 6.7% (1.07 – 14.84)
Home +2.0 : Away -2.0 96.7% – 3.3% (1.03 – 30.51)
Home +2.0 & +2.5 : Away -2.0 & -2.5 96.8% – 3.2% (1.03 – 31.64)
Home +2.5 : Away -2.5 96.9% – 3.1% (1.03 – 32.77)
Home +2.5 & +3.0 : Away -2.5 & -3.0 98.1% – 1.9% (1.02 – 51.92)

1×2 Handicaps

Home -1 : Away +1 23.8% – 22.1% % – 54.1% (4.20 – 4.53 – 1.85)
Home -2 : Away +2 9.9% – 13.9% % – 76.2% (10.11 – 7.17 – 1.31)
Home -3 : Away +3 3.4% – 6.5% % – 90.1% (29.70 – 15.33 – 1.11)
Home -4 : Away +4 1.0% – 2.4% % – 96.6% (103.80 – 41.61 – 1.03)
Home +1 : Away -1 74.6% – 15.4% – 10.0% (1.34 – 6.50 – 10.04)
Home +2 : Away -2 90.0% – 6.9% % – 3.1% (1.11 – 14.48 – 32.77)
Home +3 : Away -3 96.9% – 2.3% % – 0.8% (1.03 – 43.57 – 132.20)

Total Goals

0 goals 7.5% (13.32)
0-1 goals 24.3% (4.11)
0-2 goals 49.8% (2.01)
1 goals 16.8% (5.95)
1-2 goals 42.3% (2.37)
1-3 goals 63.2% (1.58)
2 goals 25.5% (3.92)
2-3 goals 46.4% (2.15)
2-4 goals 61.9% (1.61)
3 goals 21.0% (4.77)
3-4 goals 36.4% (2.74)
3-5 goals 44.3% (2.26)
4 goals 15.5% (6.46)
4-5 goals 23.3% (4.29)
4-6 goals 27.1% (3.68)
5 goals 7.9% (12.74)
5-6 goals 11.7% (8.58)
5-7 goals 13.1% (7.66)
6 goals 3.8% (26.25)
6-7 goals 5.2% (19.20)
6-8 goals 5.7% (17.50)
7 goals 1.4% (71.45)
7-8 goals 1.9% (52.51)
7-9 goals 2.0% (48.78)

Total Goals

Over Under
0.5 goals 92.5% (1.08) 7.5% (13.32)
1.5 goals 75.7% (1.32) 24.3% (4.11)
2.5 goals 50.2% (1.99) 49.8% (2.01)
3.5 goals 29.2% (3.42) 70.8% (1.41)
4.5 goals 13.8% (7.27) 86.2% (1.16)
5.5 goals 5.9% (16.91) 94.1% (1.06)
6.5 goals 2.1% (47.54) 97.9% (1.02)
1 goals 91.0% (1.10) 9.0% (11.08)
2 goals 67.4% (1.48) 32.6% (3.07)
3 goals 37.0% (2.70) 63.0% (1.59)
4 goals 16.3% (6.14) 83.7% (1.19)
5 goals 6.4% (15.58) 93.6% (1.07)
6 goals 2.2% (45.73) 97.8% (1.02)
0.5 & 1 goals 91.8% (1.09) 8.2% (12.20)
1 & 1.5 goals 82.6% (1.21) 17.4% (5.76)
1.5 & 2 goals 72.1% (1.39) 27.9% (3.59)
2 & 2.5 goals 57.5% (1.74) 42.5% (2.36)
2.5 & 3 goals 44.4% (2.25) 55.6% (1.80)
3 & 3.5 goals 32.7% (3.06) 67.3% (1.49)
3.5 & 4 goals 23.3% (4.29) 76.7% (1.30)
4 & 4.5 goals 14.9% (6.70) 85.1% (1.18)
4.5 & 5 goals 10.2% (9.77) 89.8% (1.11)
5 & 5.5 goals 6.2% (16.25) 93.8% (1.07)
5.5 & 6 goals 4.1% (24.47) 95.9% (1.04)
6 & 6.5 goals 2.1% (46.63) 97.9% (1.02)

1. Half Total Goals

Over Under
0.5 goals 68.2% (1.47) 31.8% (3.15)
1.5 goals 32.7% (3.06) 67.3% (1.49)
2.5 goals 11.3% (8.83) 88.7% (1.13)
3.5 goals 3.1% (31.78) 96.9% (1.03)
1 goals 50.7% (1.97) 49.3% (2.03)
2 goals 14.4% (6.94) 85.6% (1.17)
3 goals 3.4% (29.18) 96.6% (1.04)

2. Half Total Goals

Over Under
0.5 goals 78.4% (1.28) 21.6% (4.64)
1.5 goals 46.1% (2.17) 53.9% (1.86)
2.5 goals 20.4% (4.90) 79.6% (1.26)
3.5 goals 7.3% (13.67) 92.7% (1.08)
4.5 goals 2.1% (46.98) 97.9% (1.02)
1 goals 68.1% (1.47) 31.9% (3.14)
2 goals 27.5% (3.64) 72.5% (1.38)
3 goals 8.4% (11.88) 91.6% (1.09)
4 goals 2.2% (44.54) 97.8% (1.02)
1 (Home) Or Total Goals Over 2.5 68.0% (1.47)
2 (Away) Or Total Goals Over 2.5 61.0% (1.64)
1 (Home) & Total Goals Over 1.5 @ 1. Half 17.4% (5.74)
2 (Away) & Total Goals Over 1.5 @ 1. Half 8.9% (11.25)

Team Totals

Home Over Under
0.5 goals 79.6% (1.26) 20.4% (4.91)
1.5 goals 46.6% (2.15) 53.4% (1.87)
2.5 goals 20.9% (4.79) 79.1% (1.26)
3.5 goals 7.5% (13.26) 92.5% (1.08)
4.5 goals 2.3% (44.26) 97.7% (1.02)
1 goals 69.6% (1.44) 30.4% (3.29)
2 goals 28.1% (3.56) 71.9% (1.39)
3 goals 8.7% (11.49) 91.3% (1.10)
4 goals 2.4% (41.92) 97.6% (1.02)
Away Over Under
0.5 goals 68.1% (1.47) 31.9% (3.13)
1.5 goals 31.0% (3.23) 69.0% (1.45)
2.5 goals 10.3% (9.71) 89.7% (1.11)
3.5 goals 2.7% (37.06) 97.3% (1.03)
1 goals 49.2% (2.03) 50.8% (1.97)
2 goals 13.0% (7.70) 87.0% (1.15)
3 goals 2.9% (34.24) 97.1% (1.03)

1. Half Team Totals

Home Over Under
0.5 goals 49.2% (2.03) 50.8% (1.97)
1.5 goals 14.9% (6.73) 85.1% (1.17)
2.5 goals 3.2% (31.30) 96.8% (1.03)
Away Over Under
0.5 goals 38.4% (2.61) 61.6% (1.62)
1.5 goals 8.5% (11.74) 91.5% (1.09)
2.5 goals 1.3% (75.64) 98.7% (1.01)

2. Half Team Totals

Home Over Under
0.5 goals 59.6% (1.68) 40.4% (2.47)
1.5 goals 22.9% (4.36) 77.1% (1.30)
2.5 goals 6.4% (15.62) 93.6% (1.07)
3.5 goals 1.4% (72.06) 98.6% (1.01)
Away Over Under
0.5 goals 47.6% (2.10) 52.4% (1.91)
1.5 goals 13.7% (7.32) 86.3% (1.16)
2.5 goals 2.8% (36.06) 97.2% (1.03)
Both Teams To Score & 2+ goals @ 1. Half 26.3% (3.80)
Total Goals Over 0.5 goals @ 1. Half & Over 0.5 @ 2. Half 53.5% (1.87)
Total Goals Over 1.5 goals @ 1. Half & Over 0.5 @ 2. Half 25.7% (3.90)
Total Goals Over 0.5 goals @ 1. Half & Over 1.5 @ 2. Half 31.5% (3.18)
Total Goals Over 1.5 goals @ 1. Half & Over 1.5 @ 2. Half 15.1% (6.63)
Home Over 0.5 goals @ 1. Half & Over 0.5 @ 2. Half 29.3% (3.41)
Home Over 1.5 goals @ 1. Half & Over 0.5 @ 2. Half 8.9% (11.29)
Home Over 0.5 goals @ 1. Half & Over 1.5 @ 2. Half 11.3% (8.85)
Home Over 1.5 goals @ 1. Half & Over 1.5 @ 2. Half 3.4% (29.32)
Away Over 0.5 goals @ 1. Half & Over 0.5 @ 2. Half 18.2% (5.48)
Away Over 1.5 goals @ 1. Half & Over 0.5 @ 2. Half 4.1% (24.68)
Away Over 0.5 goals @ 1. Half & Over 1.5 @ 2. Half 5.2% (19.08)
Away Over 1.5 goals @ 1. Half & Over 1.5 @ 2. Half 1.2% (85.91)

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28 + = 31