Tag Archives: power ratings

Statistics Pro: Time Machine

Our superb head-to-head (h2h, team comparison) statistics keeps getting new features! Now you can go back in time to any date and see all these stats re-calculated as of that time being. You will also see 1×2 odds from that date.

Open the demo page for our H2H Statistics Pro here if you can’t wait to see this in action or subscribe to the Statistics Pro service here to have full access.

While many of the statistics sites lets you see round by round of league tables and browse all historic results, we will give you every feature of our H2H stats re-calculated BEFORE the date you choose. For example:

  • your chosen amount of previous games with goal graph and total goals over/under summary, goal averages and more
  • team performance graph for last x games
  • national teams power ratings with historic graph (note: our power ratings are calculated from games played after 1.1.2000)
  • head-to-head results and summary with total goals over/under
  • against common opponents
  • longest streaks
  • league tables
  • last x games form
  • country vs country
  • + more
  • every sports we have
  • and you can also do all the data filtering there too (1. half/period, min/max odds, playoffs only etc)



The date on the left side is the odds date (“before 1.6.2012” that is) and on the right side it is the upcoming game date for Germany – Portugal. There is also a quick navigation to go back and forward in time by 1 day, 1 week, 1 month or 1 year:

You can then look for example how the odds has changed for this game day by day or week by week. Note: All the game dates are EET time zone (UTC +2).

Here is league table and form table example of Manchester City – Liverpool before 2.12.2013 (you can customize the number of games for the form):

Another nice feature is that by clicking any game result (opening the game report page) gives you a quick option to compare those teams BEFORE that game was played. Really nice way to do statistics research for profit in sports betting:


Football Elo ratings calculations added to PoissoNed! Pro

Football Elo ratings calculations added to PoissoNed! Pro: http://annabet.com/en/poissoned/ Enter both teams Elo ratings (or AnnaBet Power Ratings) and your estimation of total goals to get tons of probabilities. PoissoNed! is a mathematical tool to calculate football probabilities based on your goal expectations. It can also be helpful in other low scoring sports like ice hockey.

In this example I have used AnnaBet Power Ratings values of Italy U19 and Bosnia & Herzegovina U19 and estimated total goals of 2,85. Tie probability multiplier is optional. It can be used to adjust tie probability. For example value of 1,1 would add 10% (multiply by 1,1).

Elo ratings calculations are only available in PoissoNed! Pro version. You can buy it from our web store.

AnnaBet Power Ratings guide

Our ratings are currently calculated from games played after 1.1.2000

In football our ratings are similar to World Football Elo Ratings but we have tuned up the formula. For example when goal difference is low or game is tied and we have shots on goal statistics available for the game, we’ll then analyze the shots ratio to have some effect on the ratings. For example if a game was tied 1-1 but home team outshoot away team by 10-2 you might say the home team was the better team despite the result.

In ice hockey the ratings are similar but we have taken account the higher number of goals scored and “home” team (first mentioned team) line change advantage. For example if ice hockey game Sweden – Finland was played at Finland but Sweden had the line change advantage it is then taken account when calculating ratings.

Some examples how ratings are adjusted after each game

In the beginning each team has starting rating of 1000 points. After each game played the sum of points change is 0: if home team gets +20 points then away team gets -20 pts deducted. Amount is always based on the weight/importance of the tournament: in friendlies teams get much less points than in World Cup finals.

Two equal teams meet: winner gets some decent points and loser looses the same amount. Example +20 / -20.
Heavy favorite (much higher rating) wins by few goals: gets only few points because it was very expected result. Your points rises very slowly by beating much poorer teams than you. Example +3 / -3.
Heavy favorite ties a game: favorite loses small amount of points because it was expected that the team should win, the opponent get some points. Example -3 / +3 points.
Heavy favorite loses a game: loses lots of rating points, winner gets lots of points. Example -40 / +40.

Sample Winning Expectancies

in Ratings
0 0.500 0.500
10 0.514 0.486
20 0.529 0.471
30 0.543 0.457
40 0.557 0.443
50 0.571 0.429
60 0.585 0.415
70 0.599 0.401
80 0.613 0.387
90 0.627 0.373
100 0.640 0.360
110 0.653 0.347
120 0.666 0.334
130 0.679 0.321
140 0.691 0.309
150 0.703 0.297
160 0.715 0.285
170 0.727 0.273
180 0.738 0.262
190 0.749 0.251
200 0.760 0.240

Table by Eloratings.net

Why are Power Ratings better than winning percentage or league table?

Let’s say we have 2 teams whose performance we are analyzing: Finland and Sweden. Both teams have played 8 games and Finland has 6 wins and 2 losses, Sweden 5 wins and 3 losses. You might say Finland is the better team based on that info? What if Finland has won 4 games against poor teams, 2 against mediocre and lost 2 against better teams. Sweden on the other hand had win 3 games against better teams, 2 against mediocre and then 3 narrow losses against mediocre teams. Putting it that way, you might not believe Finland should be a favorite here after all. Would our Power Ratings tell you the exactly same thing:

Finland starting rating 1000:

1. game 4-0 win against poor team +10 pts (1010)
2. game 3-1 win against poor team +6 pts (1016)
3. game 0-2 loss against better team -10 pts (1006)
4. game 4-3 win against mediocre team +15 pts (1021)
5. game 5-3 win against mediocre team +18 pts (1039)
6. game 3-5 loss against better team -10 pts (1029)
7. game 2-0 win against poor team +6 pts (1035)
8. game 5-2 win against poor team +8 pts (1043)
Current rating 1043

Sweden starting rating 1000:

1. game 3-2 win against better team +25 pts (1025)
2. game 2-3 loss against mediocre team -12 pts (1013)
3. game 4-2 win against better team +30 pts (1043)
4. game 3-0 win against mediocre team +20 pts (1063)
5. game 3-5 loss against mediocre team -15 pts (1048)
6. game 3-4 loss against mediocre team -12 pts (1036)
7. game 4-1 win against better team +35 pts (1071)
8. game 3-1 win against mediocre team +16 pts (1087)
Current rating 1087

These are just rough examples for you to get the idea.

Finland vs Sweden Power Ratings: 1043 – 1087, ratings difference 44 and by looking at the table above you can see that this game should be about Finland 46% winning chance and Sweden 54%. Note that home advantage is usually about 100 points so 46%-54% would be only at neutral venue.

It is not always about how many games you have won but rather which teams and by how many goals that tells more about your true Power. But still remember these are only computer calculated estimations and does not take account real world situations like injuries, weather etc. Also note Power Ratings being much less accurate when teams have a big difference between number of games played and/or quality/diversity of tournaments where they have played.

For example in ice hockey USA and Canada plays only few friendly matches before major tournaments and European teams plays a lots of smaller tournaments – and also playing many games against couple of selected opponents only. Smaller tournaments and friendly matches makes of course smaller changes to Power Ratings than major tournaments but when you play a lot of smaller games it can add up.

Purchase Statistics Pro to see national soccer and ice hockey teams power ratings and value odds in our head-to-head statistics

Example screenshot in our h2h / team comparison page Poland vs France:

Click here to buy Statistics Pro from our web store

Our Power Rating pages

Ice Hockey World Championship 2013

Finland and Sweden will co-host the Ice Hockey World Championship for the second year in a row 3.-19.5.2013. AnnaBet offers you Power Ratings (see our guide here):

Odds Comparison. See highest odds for upcoming games here (updated 30.4.2013):

Winner Odds comparison. See best odds here (30.4.2013):

Twitter box shows what is being discussed right now:


And all the best statistics for upcoming games.

Click here to open our Ice Hockey World Championship page