Comments on: Soccer goal probabilities: Poisson vs actual distribution https://blog.annabet.com/soccer-goal-probabilities-poisson-vs-actual-distribution/ Wed, 01 Mar 2017 09:02:58 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.8.2 By: How much of Leicester City's championship was luck? | A bunch of data https://blog.annabet.com/soccer-goal-probabilities-poisson-vs-actual-distribution/#comment-13 Mon, 11 Jul 2016 14:00:08 +0000 http://annabet.com/blog/?p=193#comment-13 […] by more than a goal a game.The SD of goal differential is pretty easy to figure out, if you assume goals are Poisson. Last season, the average game had 1.35 goals for each team. In a Poisson distribution, the […]

]]> By: AndyW https://blog.annabet.com/soccer-goal-probabilities-poisson-vs-actual-distribution/#comment-5 Sat, 29 Nov 2014 22:15:17 +0000 http://annabet.com/blog/?p=193#comment-5 In reply to Stephen.

really good website – from what I understand your site seems to give strong predictive results

]]> By: Stephen https://blog.annabet.com/soccer-goal-probabilities-poisson-vs-actual-distribution/#comment-4 Wed, 27 Aug 2014 16:38:54 +0000 http://annabet.com/blog/?p=193#comment-4 Excellent article. I would like to draw your attention to a poisson tool (http://scoreline.tips) I have created for modelling football matches. It uses a current database of matches to calculate the mean goals for each team home and away, for and against, and then shows the poisson distribution of the scorelines. You can enter your own custom values if you want.

]]> By: Estimating chances for two parallel World Cup games | neurotroph https://blog.annabet.com/soccer-goal-probabilities-poisson-vs-actual-distribution/#comment-3 Mon, 23 Jun 2014 20:29:07 +0000 http://annabet.com/blog/?p=193#comment-3 […] goals are approximately Poisson-distributed, so if you take the 1st Round goals of a team as an estimation for {lambda}, you can estimate the […]

]]> By: Anonymous https://blog.annabet.com/soccer-goal-probabilities-poisson-vs-actual-distribution/#comment-2 Tue, 05 Nov 2013 22:49:58 +0000 http://annabet.com/blog/?p=193#comment-2 […] […]

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